30 years of experience working with governmental/state organisations, multilateral agencies and philanthropic bodies to improve performance, lesson-learning and accountability in over 20 countries.

Solid grasp of evaluation and performance assessment methodologies, combined with practical experience working with organisations to analyse performance, communicate the results to policy makers and assist organisations to implement improvements.

Responsive to external accountability demands;  sensitive to the political and organisational implications of evaluation.

Interesting assignments

Collaborating with Stuart Astill to develop OLCA – Outcome Likelihoods and Causal Analysis.   OLCA is an approach to modelling causality but where our understanding is incomplete and causality is complex – i.e. causality is uncertain, asymmetric, conjunctural and subject to equifinality and INUS conditions.  Specifically…

– OLCA estimates the likelihoods of outcomes by combining mapping of causality with expert beliefs about influence and success. It uses advanced quantitative methods and software to provide data-driven insights.

– OLCA creates an interactive causal model to test strategy sensitivity. It can answer questions about the likelihood of activities having intended effects, how the success or failure of one activity affects others, and overall chances of success.

– OLCA starts with participatory mapping to elaborate a theory of change. This is transformed into a modellable influence map.

– Beliefs are elicited from practitioners  and these are entered into Bayesian network software to create the interactive model.

– The model provides a visual tool to explore “what-if” scenarios and examine why outcomes occur. It can be updated with new evidence and learning.

– OLCA captures uncertainty and allows in-flight course correction based on improved knowledge. It facilitates structured reflection and insight into evolving strategy.

– The interactive modelling and ability to update beliefs are key advantages of OLCA over other strategy analysis methods. It augments adaptive management.

– OLCA provides an indicator to track and communicate improving prospects over time. This engages stakeholders on evolving performance.

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What’s happening…

For anyone who is interested in evaluating initiatives promoting “evidence informed policy-making”, you might be interested in this review of 3 knowlege-to-policy programs supported by DFAT in Indonesia: The study covered  the Knowledge Sector Initiative; the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) South East Asia and UN Pulse Lab Jakarta and looks at what …

It’s good to talk? Assessing the quality of dialogue

Policy dialogue has been an important element of international development efforts for some years now.  However, its importance seems only set to grow, as the development arena becomes more contested, as commitment to multilateralism weakens and individual governments align international assistance with foreign policy.   But assessing policy dialogue is hard.  Multiple factors condition the progress and outcome …

Evaluating uncertainty

How do you assess an intervention where the outcomes are long-term and hard to predict, there is little ‘hard’ or definitive ‘objective’ data on which to judge progress in the meantime, and anyway the relationship between effort and results is non-linear and the programme’s influence is at best indirect and small (but hopefully important nonetheless).  …



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