Collaborating with Stuart Astill to develop OLCA – Outcome Likelihoods and Causal Analysis. OLCA is an approach to modelling causality but where our understanding is incomplete and causality is complex – i.e. causality is uncertain, asymmetric, conjunctural and subject to equifinality and INUS conditions. Specifically…
– OLCA estimates the likelihoods of outcomes by combining mapping of causality with expert beliefs about influence and success. It uses advanced quantitative methods and software to provide data-driven insights.
– OLCA creates an interactive causal model to test strategy sensitivity. It can answer questions about the likelihood of activities having intended effects, how the success or failure of one activity affects others, and overall chances of success.
– OLCA starts with participatory mapping to elaborate a theory of change. This is transformed into a modellable influence map.
– Beliefs are elicited from practitioners and these are entered into Bayesian network software to create the interactive model.
– The model provides a visual tool to explore “what-if” scenarios and examine why outcomes occur. It can be updated with new evidence and learning.
– OLCA captures uncertainty and allows in-flight course correction based on improved knowledge. It facilitates structured reflection and insight into evolving strategy.
– The interactive modelling and ability to update beliefs are key advantages of OLCA over other strategy analysis methods. It augments adaptive management.
– OLCA provides an indicator to track and communicate improving prospects over time. This engages stakeholders on evolving performance.
You can explore more at: https://www.quantqual.net/